Canada Post management is sparing no effort to tell us that cutbacks and plant closures are necessary because of the decline in addressed lettermail volumes. Are they trying to scare us? You be the judge.

• In 1997 CPC told us that the decline in mail due to diversion to electronic communications had already started. In that year CPC reported volumes of lettermail at 4.9 billion pieces. In 2004 CPC reported lettermail volumes of 5.5 billion pieces.
• In 1999, when we were going into negotiations CPC provided CUPW with documentation predicting a 2.9% reduction in lettermail volumes. According to CPC the volume of lettermail in 2004 would be 4.0 billion pieces. The actual volume for 2004, as reported in the CPC Annual Report, was 5.5 billion pieces. (CPC was only off by 37.5%).
• Throughout 2005 CPC President Moya Greene told everyone that lettermail volumes are declining. However the CPC Annual Reports indicate that lettermail volumes increased in both 2004 and 2005. Today Canada Post delivers a record volume of mail to a record number of households.

Will Lettermail Decline?

We do not know. Some predictions are that lettermail will begin a slow and steady decline. But as seen above, previous predictions have been wrong. We do know that volumes are not increasing as fast as the growth in points of delivery. That means that the number of pieces per point of call is declining very slightly. If this pattern continues it will have implications with respect to delivery density and the percentage of coverage for letter carriers.

Communications needs are very difficult to predict. Many people thought that facsimile technology would eliminate mail between businesses. Email and the internet certainly pose a threat to mail volumes. Internet shopping also provides new potential for both parcel delivery and addressed admail.

Will text messaging replace the use of email and the internet? Will a series of serious computer viruses reduce the use of the internet for bill payments? What does the future hold? Do you know? Does Canada Post know?